“La sabiduría de la vida consiste en la eliminación de lo no esencial. En reducir los problemas de la filosofía a unos pocos solamente: el goce del hogar, de la vida, de la naturaleza, de la cultura”.
Lin Yutang
Cervantes
Hoy es el día más hermoso de nuestra vida, querido Sancho; los obstáculos más grandes, nuestras propias indecisiones; nuestro enemigo más fuerte, el miedo al poderoso y a nosotros mismos; la cosa más fácil, equivocarnos; la más destructiva, la mentira y el egoísmo; la peor derrota, el desaliento; los defectos más peligrosos, la soberbia y el rencor; las sensaciones más gratas, la buena conciencia, el esfuerzo para ser mejores sin ser perfectos, y sobretodo, la disposición para hacer el bien y combatir la injusticia dondequiera que esté.
MIGUEL DE CERVANTES Don Quijote de la Mancha.
28 de agosto de 2015
This Is What Oil at $40 Means for the U.S. Economy
We surveyed economists to see what a sustained period of cheap oil would do for U.S. growth, inflation and monetary policy
The price of oil has tumbled 58
percent this year to reach a six-year low earlier this week. Even if
prices stay at these levels, chances are they won't impact the Federal
Reserve's interest-rate plans.
Seventy percent of economists in a
Bloomberg News survey said crude oil prices around $40 per barrel for
the next three months would have no impact on the Fed. Of the 30 percent
that said it would influence the central bank, the respondents were
evenly split between whether it would cause a delay in the first
interest-rate increase or slow the hiking path.
The fed
funds rate has been at a range of 0-0.25% since the end of 2008 and
officials meet September 16-17 to decide whether an interest rate
increase is still warranted. New York Fed President William Dudley said
Wednesday that the case for raising rates in September is less
compelling after recent market volatility.
Oil
sustained around $40 through the end of the year will only
put prices further from the Fed's 2 percent target. The median
projection of 24 economists is for a deduction of 0.3 percentage point
from average, year-over-year CPI this year, which economists forecast at
exactly 0.3 percent in a separate survey.
And
don't discount the chance of oil prices, as measured by West Texas
Intermediate futures, staying at these lows for at least a while.
Economists assigned a 65% probability that crude will stay around $40
per barrel through the end of September. Forty percent said it could
stay here until the end of the year. And it could get worse; one in
three of the economists said oil will fall to as low as $30 a barrel.
While
crude has come down far and fast (prices were as high as $61.43 in
June), the drop may actually help U.S. growth. Economists say oil prices
sustained at the current levels through the end of the year would boost
U.S. GDP by 0.2 percentage point. That scenario would have no impact on
U.S. exports and global growth.
