By Dr. Binoy Kampmark
Global Research, June 23, 2017
Url of this article:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/
To become enmeshed in a war of incalculable variables; to be at bloody bruised loggerheads – this is the Syrian nightmare, where there are more punters than odds. Savagely, Syria as a state is being ravaged and mauled to the point of non-recognition. It is now a mere terrain for heavily armed bullies, a smoky crusted ruin of dust and cosmic ruin, its populace fleeing when it can, shielding itself when it must, and hoping for the best.
The great power play never assumes that small states matter. They
supply the necessary show for the big game, the theatre set for the
show down in which the small scatter whilst the big boys level the
punches. In history, the bully is insentient, and normally stumbles into
mistake and catastrophe.
In
the latest showdown, a Syrian Su-22 jet was shot down by US forces, as
was an Iranian-made drone that was said to have “dirty wings”, a term
used to suggest it was armed. A US-led coalition statement claimed that
it would not “tolerate any hostile intent and action of pro-regime
forces.”[1]
One
coalition had slighted another, though it was hardly the first time.
Last September, 62 Syrian government troops were killed in a US strike.
The reaction these latest engagements was theatrical, with Moscow being
furiously remonstrative. An important ally needed shouldering; promises
and reassurances needed to be made.
To
that end, the use of the US-Russian hotline used to avoid collisions in
Syrian airspace was suspended. A promise more with bark than bite also
suggested that aircraft flown by the coalition west of the Euphrates
would be targeted. None of this suggests a remarkable shift: the danger
in such a conflict remain the cooks pondering a spoiling broth.
Image on the right: General Joseph F. Dunford Jr. (Source: matzav.com)
“This,” as General Joseph F. Dunford Jr.,
chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, “is a delicate couple of
hours.” But demonstrating how any dish coming out of this dispute is
bound to be inedible and constipating in nature, Dunford suggested that
the US would work on the military and diplomatic front “to re-establish
de-confliction.”
De-confliction
has become the mangled word of Pentagon speak since a zone of sorts was
agreed to between Washington and Moscow. This designation, designed to
avoid conflict, has simply refined it.
This
has led to sharp military encounters, with US-led coalition aircraft
striking pro-Assad forces in an effort to prevent an advance from the
Al-Tanf garrison in south-eastern Syria. By all means do well against
Islamic State forces, but do in moderation. Such attacks have naturally
been given the justifying coating of self-defence, because it seems that
no force in Syria is ever provocative or aggressive.
More
of these incidents are bound to take place in the wake of ISIL retreats
in its efforts to focus on defending Deir Az Zor and Raqqa. Vacuums
left are rapidly filled. Syrian government gains have been looked at
with some worry by US-allied forces who see the removal of Assad as key.
As a statement from the Syrian news agency SANA claimed earlier this
month, “army units in cooperation with allies managed to arrive at the
border… with Iraq” for the first time since 2015.
As
if this wasn’t enough, US and Russian military authorities have been
bandying about accounts of an encounter between an American RC-135
reconnaissance plane and a Sukhoi Su-27 that took place 25 miles
north-west of Kaliningrad.
The
Russian version saw the reconnaissance plane moving dangerously in the
direction of the Russian jet. The US account was predictably different:
the Russian aircraft had flown “erratically” in its approach, coming
within mere feet of the RC-135.
For
those with anxious historical minds, the sense of a global conflict
stemming from the small is clear. In 1914, it was a political
assassination pinned on Serbia, the noted scapegoat in a European lust
for self-destruction. In the Syrian scenario, the lust is less
pronounced but present. None of the powers genuinely wants to shed the
blood of the other, but the necessity for doing so, through pretext,
through design, and, finally, through incompetence, is there.
For
such reasons, states fearing have decided to embrace caution and scrap
recklessness, even if the measure is more sham than substance.
Australia, a previous if below-the-radar participant in the bombing
coalition against Islamic State, suspended operations over Syria earlier
this week as “a precautionary measure to allow the coalition to assess
the operational risk.”
But
true to form, the stance on suspension was revised in an announcement
made two days later. Australian officials had evidently understood the
Russian warnings to be manageable. The military show, in other words,
must go on.
Dr. Binoy Kampmark was a Commonwealth Scholar at Selwyn College, Cambridge. He lectures at RMIT University, Melbourne. Email: bkampmark@gmail.com.
Note
Featured image: South Front
Disclaimer: The contents of this article are of sole
responsibility of the author(s). The Centre for Research on
Globalization will not be responsible for any inaccurate or incorrect
statement in this article.Copyright © Dr. Binoy Kampmark, Global Research, 2017