Cervantes

Hoy es el día más hermoso de nuestra vida, querido Sancho; los obstáculos más grandes, nuestras propias indecisiones; nuestro enemigo más fuerte, el miedo al poderoso y a nosotros mismos; la cosa más fácil, equivocarnos; la más destructiva, la mentira y el egoísmo; la peor derrota, el desaliento; los defectos más peligrosos, la soberbia y el rencor; las sensaciones más gratas, la buena conciencia, el esfuerzo para ser mejores sin ser perfectos, y sobretodo, la disposición para hacer el bien y combatir la injusticia dondequiera que esté.

MIGUEL DE CERVANTES
Don Quijote de la Mancha.

3 de septiembre de 2015

Fed Overstates Impact of Dollar, Oil on Inflation, Goldman Says

U.S. inflation, which the Federal Reserve has tied to its decision of when to raise interest rates, is being restrained more by labor market slack than the transitory influences of a stronger dollar and lower oil prices, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said.
A Fed computer simulation of the U.S. economy, used by officials to gauge fallout from the dollar and energy prices, significantly overstated the drag they exert on core inflation, according to a Goldman Sachs report published Wednesday.
That runs counter to the message from Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, who said in a Saturday speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that “the rise in the dollar since last summer, of about 17 percent in nominal terms, with its associated declines in non-oil import prices, could plausibly be holding down core inflation quite noticeably this year.”
Policy makers’ assessment of the outlook for inflation is vital to the timing of rate liftoff. That judgment may hinge on how much importance they place on the role of transitory influences in keeping price pressures too low, versus the more stubborn drag of labor market slack. Officials next meet Sept. 16-17.
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the price index of personal consumption expenditures, rose 0.3 percent from a year earlier in July and has been below the Fed’s 2 percent target for three years. The core measure, which strips out prices of food and energy and is commonly described by officials as the best predictor of where headline inflation is going, showed a 1.2 percent annual inflation rate in July.
The computer model Fischer cited in his speech may be overestimating the effects of transitory influences of the dollar and oil on inflation by as much as eight times, Goldman economists Zach Pandl and Sven Jari Stehn wrote in their note to clients. Core goods prices fell 0.8 percent in the year through July, and their weight in the index implies only 0.1 or 0.2 percentage point of drag from the dollar, they said.
Minutes of the Fed’s July 28-29 policy meeting showed growing uncertainty over whether inflation would rise back to the 2 percent target in a timely manner.
“Transitory factors such as the strong dollar and falling commodities have probably depressed domestic consumer prices to a degree, but we doubt they explain most of the shortfall of core PCE inflation relative to the Fed’s target,” Pandl and Stehn wrote. “Instead, we see room for other factors -- such as continued slack in the labor market -- which may have more lasting effects.”
Investors saw a 30 percent probability the Fed will raise rates next month, according to trading in federal funds futures at 11:55 a.m. in New York on Thursday, and a 41 percent chance of a move by October. The chances for a rate increase by December were 56 percent.

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