Hoy es el día más hermoso de nuestra vida, querido Sancho; los obstáculos más grandes, nuestras propias indecisiones; nuestro enemigo más fuerte, el miedo al poderoso y a nosotros mismos; la cosa más fácil, equivocarnos; la más destructiva, la mentira y el egoísmo; la peor derrota, el desaliento; los defectos más peligrosos, la soberbia y el rencor; las sensaciones más gratas, la buena conciencia, el esfuerzo para ser mejores sin ser perfectos, y sobretodo, la disposición para hacer el bien y combatir la injusticia dondequiera que esté.
MIGUEL DE CERVANTES Don Quijote de la Mancha.
20 de marzo de 2017
Oil May Be the Key to the Reflation Rally
by
Eric Lam
and
Narae Kim
Oil drop brings sustainability of rally into question: Morris
Brent has almost halved its gains since Trump’s election win
Throw out the tea leaves and the crystal ball. When it
comes to divining the future of the reflation trade, investors should be
keeping a close eye on oil.
Crude’s bounce following the OPEC
production deal in November underpinned many assumptions the market has
about economic growth and inflation, says Daniel Morris, a senior
investment strategist with BNP Paribas Investment Partners. But after
surging to an almost 18-month high in January, Brent oil has wiped out
the gains made after the output reduction pact as the group’s aim to
stabilize the global market is undermined by higher U.S. production.
“If
you take the oil story away, then you start wondering how sustainable
the reflation story is,” Morris said by phone from London. “Lingering
doubt” that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ cuts will
be extended, along with rising U.S. output, is bringing oil’s outlook
into question, he said.
As a key cost for both consumers and industries in economies
around the world, oil plays a pivotal role when it comes to global
inflation expectations. That sentiment then feeds into the outlook for
bond yields and equities, Morris said. Crude rallied along with shares
and other commodities after Donald Trump’s election ignited bets on
fiscal spending-fueled growth. Since reaching a peak on Jan. 6, however,
Brent has retreated 10 percent amid renewed anxiety over the prospects
for global demand and supply.
“On
one hand you had Trump and higher rates and stimulus and all that, and
at the same time you’ve had the support from oil prices and so this is
all part of the same narrative,” Morris said. “It’s very important what
happens with oil.”
Brent added 0.3 percent to $51.76 a barrel as
of 8:52 a.m. Hong Kong time, below its $55.05 average price in 2017.
West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed at $48.28 per barrel.
Dagger Move
Crude
prices and stocks have generally moved in the same direction over the
past year, except for the divergence seen in the past few weeks,
according to James Audiss, a senior wealth manager at Shaw and Partners
Ltd. in Sydney, which oversees about A$10 billion ($7.7 billion).
“We’ve seen dagger moves in the past,” Audiss said, referring
to the shape made on a chart by a swift drop in an asset that is then
quickly corrected. “It’ll be interesting if we have a dagger move -- if
that plays out in the next couple of weeks. That would be supportive of
equities.”
BNP Paribas Investment’s Morris said he doesn’t have a
“particularly bullish” outlook on commodities, which have fallen this
year amid the drop in oil, a Bloomberg index of raw materials prices
shows. The multi-asset solutions arm of BNP Paribas Investment is
underweight equities after the 11 percent surge in U.S. stocks since
Trump’s victory. There are also some medium-term opportunities in
emerging market shares and local-currency denominated debt, he said.
“There’s
a lot of hope that’s been built into the market that may or may not be
realized,” Morris said. “There’s certainly some vulnerability there to
disappointment.”
