“La sabiduría de la vida consiste en la eliminación de lo no esencial. En reducir los problemas de la filosofía a unos pocos solamente: el goce del hogar, de la vida, de la naturaleza, de la cultura”.
Lin Yutang
Cervantes
Hoy es el día más hermoso de nuestra vida, querido Sancho; los obstáculos más grandes, nuestras propias indecisiones; nuestro enemigo más fuerte, el miedo al poderoso y a nosotros mismos; la cosa más fácil, equivocarnos; la más destructiva, la mentira y el egoísmo; la peor derrota, el desaliento; los defectos más peligrosos, la soberbia y el rencor; las sensaciones más gratas, la buena conciencia, el esfuerzo para ser mejores sin ser perfectos, y sobretodo, la disposición para hacer el bien y combatir la injusticia dondequiera que esté.
MIGUEL DE CERVANTES Don Quijote de la Mancha.
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29 de agosto de 2015
BofAML's Woo Explains How China Was Behind One of This Week's Most Extraordinary Market Developments
Why it was a brutal week for risk parity
One of the more puzzling events
that occurred this week was the failure of long-dated Treasuries to
catch a bid while the bottom was falling out of stocks. At times when
the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index was plunging on Tuesday and
Wednesday, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond actually made a
move higher, the opposite of what you'd expect when investors are
scrambling for a safe haven to park funds in a time of market turmoil.
You can see the strange action depicted in the below chart, which
compares the yield on 30-year Treasuries (the white line) with S&P
futures (the green line). The red-shaded area shows the period of
disconnect.
Source: Bloomberg
During
an interview on Bloomberg TV, David Woo, Bank of America Merrill
Lynch's head of global rates and currency research, explained that this
curious price action has its roots in Chinese policy.
"I would
argue the insensitivity of Chinese interest rates and U.S. interest
rates to equity volatility are actually very much connected; in fact,
they're directly linked," he said.
Chinese
intervention in foreign exchange markets to prop up the value of the
renminbi, Woo argued, is at the heart of this price action.
To
mount a defense of its currency, China first has to divest Treasuries
and then exchange the U.S. dollar proceeds for renminbi. This practice
puts upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields. So in a period when
investors normally flock to the safety of U.S. debt and drag yields
lower, the largest foreign holder was selling.
The rare positive
correlation between stocks and bonds in a period of market stress that
ensued wreaked particular havoc on a market strategy—risk parity—that
has risen in prominence over the past few years. In general,
practitioners of this strategy use leverage to generate equity-like
returns from fixed income.
"They're banking on the negative
correlation between these two to work for them during periods of
stress," he explained. "This is why they generally run a relatively
low-volatility portfolio, which is the reason why they tend to be
very leveraged."
The weakness in both of these asset classes was
exacerbated as these funds were forced to liquidate risk across the
board in order to limit potential losses, said Woo.
"From that
point of view, I would argue you go from a straight line to China
defending the renminbi to risk parity guys doing poorly," he concluded.
The
end game, says Woo, is a free-floating Chinese currency, which will
provide monetary policymakers the necessary freedom to give sufficient
support for the stock market and real economy.
"If it wants to
lower interest rates—which is something China needs to do, is desperate
to do—they need to let the currency go," Woo said.
A
free-floating Chinese exchange rate would likely spark competitive
devaluation across Asia and another leg downward in commodity prices. As
such, Woo concludes that it is a highly deflationary event that will
push the Federal Reserve's first rate hike even further out into the
future.
Though timing any liberalization of the exchange rate is
difficult, Woo suggested it could come following the upcoming military
celebration and Xi Jinping's visit to the U.S.