Cervantes

Hoy es el día más hermoso de nuestra vida, querido Sancho; los obstáculos más grandes, nuestras propias indecisiones; nuestro enemigo más fuerte, el miedo al poderoso y a nosotros mismos; la cosa más fácil, equivocarnos; la más destructiva, la mentira y el egoísmo; la peor derrota, el desaliento; los defectos más peligrosos, la soberbia y el rencor; las sensaciones más gratas, la buena conciencia, el esfuerzo para ser mejores sin ser perfectos, y sobretodo, la disposición para hacer el bien y combatir la injusticia dondequiera que esté.

MIGUEL DE CERVANTES
Don Quijote de la Mancha.

7 de febrero de 2016

How to Play the Deutsche Bank Collapse


by Michael E. Lewitt

Dear Sure Money Investor,

On Friday I sent you my latest special research report on Deutsche Bank, and explained how its staggering $60 trillion derivatives risk could singlehandedly trigger the Super Crash.

Today, I'd like to follow up with some specific recommendations to profit from that crash.

DB is headed straight downhill, as its plummeting stock chart and skyrocketing credit risk show.



(images via zerohedge.com)

In this case, I feel the best way to play this is simply to short the stock. That's because shorting is the purest play, but it can be very risky since a stock can theoretically rise an unlimited amount, while your upside is limited to 100%. Shorting also requires a margin account and typically, a higher level of clearance.

If you prefer not to short sell, here are two additional options plays I'm looking at that are attractive based on current prices. The first has an expiration date in April, the second in July, so they will be more expensive. It's up to you how to play this based on your expectations. In my view both are good bets:

  • BUY DB April 15, 2016 $11 puts (DB160415P00011000)
  • BUY DB July 15, 2016 $10 puts (DB160715P00010000)
In the last three months, DB has lost 37%. If it loses another 37% in the next three months (definitely in the cards), the DB April 15, 2016 $11 puts (which are currently trading around $0.225), would be both a cheap way to short and also possibly very profitable.

For six months, the puts go down to $10 (the DB July 15, 2016 $10 puts are currently trading at around $0.45) if you want to go that low. Again, they're slightly more expensive because of time value.

Stay tuned - as DB disintegrates further over the next few months, we're likely to see an increasingly severe market meltdown.

Stay safe out there, and have a great weekend.

Sincerely,



Michael

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