Economist: Three Reasons Oil Will Surge Past $70 By the End of the Year

Oil has been demolished over the past year, falling from $100 a barrel to the low 40s.
But one oil expert says things are about to turn the corner once again, and Brent crude is going to surge to $71 a barrel by the end of the year. Credit Suisse energy economist Jan Stuart spoke on Bloomberg TV yesterday, giving the reasons behind his big target.

I admit, my target looks very ambitious. The thinking behind it is that production is rolling already. We know that it's higher than we thought it was going to be at this stage, but it is rolling. The question is going to be how fast, how far. We think United States crude oil production ends the year below 9 million barrels a day from the 9.6 high...Number two, demand is growing...Emerging market demand not great, but not bad either. It's still growing, the consumer in China especially. Thirdly, Europe is not a headwind. That's the first time in five years. So without that headwind, my demand is going to be quite alright. And then, the next big shoe to drop that hasn't really dropped is that we need to see decline rates outside America kick in. If the industry spends this much less and if you know that the underlying decline rate everywhere is about four percent per annum, we need somehow to add four million barrels a day outside America, outside OPEC just to stand still. That is not going to continue to happen at these prices. 

He went on to talk about how prices need to rise for the industry to fund itself, particular for the upstream, or exploration and production portion. Also important in his forecast is that emerging market demand remains positive, even if it is at historically low levels. In terms of the biggest concerns for his target, tailwinds from a slowdown in China and a recession in emerging markets are chief among them. To watch the full interview, go here.