“La sabiduría de la vida consiste en la eliminación de lo no esencial. En reducir los problemas de la filosofía a unos pocos solamente: el goce del hogar, de la vida, de la naturaleza, de la cultura”.
Lin Yutang
Cervantes
Hoy es el día más hermoso de nuestra vida, querido Sancho; los obstáculos más grandes, nuestras propias indecisiones; nuestro enemigo más fuerte, el miedo al poderoso y a nosotros mismos; la cosa más fácil, equivocarnos; la más destructiva, la mentira y el egoísmo; la peor derrota, el desaliento; los defectos más peligrosos, la soberbia y el rencor; las sensaciones más gratas, la buena conciencia, el esfuerzo para ser mejores sin ser perfectos, y sobretodo, la disposición para hacer el bien y combatir la injusticia dondequiera que esté.
MIGUEL DE CERVANTES Don Quijote de la Mancha.
12 de agosto de 2015
What a Weaker Chinese Yuan Means for the World
Move to allow the market a greater say in setting the yuan level is roiling currencies, commodities and stocks the world over
The steepest slide in
the yuan in two decades is a game changer. The last time the
currency moved this much -- 1994 -- China's economy ranked as the
world's eighth largest, just behind Canada's, and few outside its
borders would have even been able to put a name to the currency.
Now,
the nation's move to allow the market a greater say in setting the yuan
level is roiling currencies, commodities and stocks the world over and
reshaping the global economic outlook.
Here are a few ways a sustained yuan downturn will be felt:
Can
the Fed still lift off if the greenback keeps strengthening? Bank of
America Merrill Lynch analysts are among those who think the yuan
devaluation clouds the picture for Janet Yellen.
It
was like money for jam -- borrow cheaply offshore, somehow get the
funds to China to earn a hefty interest-rate margin, and sell out later
with a currency gain to boot. A sustained yuan downturn would kill the
carry trade.
Even putting aside a weaker yuan, deepening factory-gate deflation
and the likely spillover to export prices spelled cheaper toys,
T-shirts and television sets across the world. Now add in the weaker
currency and we could see China's devaluation revive deflation fears
globally.
Global commodity prices -- mostly still priced in U.S. dollars -- have been whacked
since the yuan move. More weakness would bode ill for economic
prospects in dependent nations including Australia, Brazil and Chile.
A
weaker yuan also means it's more expensive now for Chinese consumers to
buy German cars, Swiss watches and French handbags. That's bad news for
a region mired in it its own gloomy outlook, especially if Chinese tourists cut back on their overseas vacations.
Asian
stocks tumbled. Japan's Topix Index could fall 5 percent to 10 percent
if the yuan depreciates more than 10 percent, according to BofA.
Yuan weakness is spurring selling of other regional currencies. Already, Vietnam has responded by widening the dong's trading band. Could other central banks be forced into defensive moves?
Of course, there is a bright side: if a weaker yuan helps China regain its mojo, that's a plus for the global economy.
