“La sabiduría de la vida consiste en la eliminación de lo no esencial. En reducir los problemas de la filosofía a unos pocos solamente: el goce del hogar, de la vida, de la naturaleza, de la cultura”.
Lin Yutang
Cervantes
Hoy es el día más hermoso de nuestra vida, querido Sancho; los obstáculos más grandes, nuestras propias indecisiones; nuestro enemigo más fuerte, el miedo al poderoso y a nosotros mismos; la cosa más fácil, equivocarnos; la más destructiva, la mentira y el egoísmo; la peor derrota, el desaliento; los defectos más peligrosos, la soberbia y el rencor; las sensaciones más gratas, la buena conciencia, el esfuerzo para ser mejores sin ser perfectos, y sobretodo, la disposición para hacer el bien y combatir la injusticia dondequiera que esté.
MIGUEL DE CERVANTES Don Quijote de la Mancha.
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If you’ve never watched any of Hans Rosling’s Gapminder animations
of rising living standards around the world since 1800, you really
should. If you’d prefer the version with Rosling -- a Swedish physician
and public-health expert -- acting as infectiously unhinged narrator,
you can watch his famous 2006 TED talk, which is currently at 9.9 million views, or one of the nine more TED talks he’s given since.
Heck,
even if you’ve already seen Rosling speak multiple times and wasted
hours at Gapminder.org, as I have, it’s rewarding to go back and take a
look. That’s how I just spent half my morning.
Still, you probably
don’t have time right now, so here’s the short version: Things really
have been improving. With occasional interruptions for wars, revolutions
and epidemics, people in the vast majority of the world’s countries
have been getting wealthier and healthier.
Also evident in
Rosling’s animations is the great breakout to much-higher living
standards that the U.S., Canada, Western Europe, Australia and New
Zealand made in the 1800s, followed by the great catchup in Asia since
the middle of the 20th century. Some African countries have begun making
big strides, too, although sub-Saharan Africa remains the world’s
poorest region by far.
Then there’s Latin America and the
Caribbean, whose part in this story has always intrigued and saddened
me. In the 19th century, some of the countries and colonies to the south
of the U.S. were among the world’s most affluent. In the 20th century
most of them have become much more affluent in an absolute sense (Haiti
is the tragic exception). They have nonetheless lost relative ground,
especially during the past half-century, as rich countries just got
richer and Asian nations broke through to wealth.
In working on my column on Venezuela’s economic mess
last week I spent some time looking at the growth trajectories of the
other big Latin American economies. After that, of course, I couldn’t
resist making some charts. The metric here is gross domestic product per
capita, in constant 2005 U.S. dollars.
In the interest of keeping the charts readable, I’ve separated the
countries into the four biggest, by population, and the next four.
Here’s how things have gone down in the Big Four:
Argentina has had the most eventful time of it, and not in a good
way. It started out as the most affluent of the four and ended up a
close second, but has had some really bad times in between due to war
with the U.K. and repeated financial crises. The two most populous
countries in the region, Brazil and Mexico, have grown more steadily but
certainly not spectacularly. And Colombia seems like maybe just maybe
it’s turned a corner in the past decade, although its main export is oil
so that may not last.
Go to the next four, and there’s a dramatic winner and a dramatic loser:
Venezuela was struggling long before Hugo Chavez became president in
1999, although he left the country so vulnerable to the recent drop in
oil prices that I imagine 2015 will see it lose lots of ground. Chile is
South America’s greatest economic success story -- a big commodity
exporter (copper, mainly) that has escaped the resource curse
that so often bedevils such countries. Peru had a terrible 1980s and
1990s, but things have been looking up lately. Ecuador too has been
seeing growth after a quarter-century of stagnation but it, like
Colombia and Venezuela, is heavily dependent on oil. Venezuela
So
among the larger Latin American countries, there is one great success,
Chile, one great failure, Venezuela, and a bunch of countries that have
been getting more affluent, but slowly. You can see this more clearly
when you bring in some countries outside Latin America and the
Caribbean.
Compared to these other, more dynamic economies, Latin America seems
to have been making hardly any progress. I’m not even going to try to go
into all the possible reasons for this, in part because they vary
greatly among countries. I am willing to go out on a limb and say that I
don’t think either U.S. imperialism or persistent bad luck is a
satisfactory explanation for Latin America’s slow growth. Clearly these
-- with the possible exception of Chile -- have not been among the
world’s best-managed economies. And that really is too bad.
I
generally try to use GDP numbers adjusted for purchasing-power parity
in making such comparisons, since they better represent relative living
standards. But the World Bank doesn’t have that data for Argentina, so I
went with unadjusted GDP.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.