December 5, 2016
But not readers of last year’s Bloomberg Pessimist’s Guide, which warned that the unthinkable could happen in both cases. Now the authors are turning their attention to 2017.
From social breakdown in the U.S. to a nuclear crisis in North Korea to the defeat of Angela Merkel in Germany, the potential for chaos is just as great.
These aren’t predictions. But they show what your social-media news feed could look like if things go wrong.
Trumplandia

Trump’s popularity soars in his first weeks in office as an energized Republican Congress passes a huge fiscal stimulus.

Breaking News

However, new waves of protests rise after he’s inaugurated and signs executive orders reversing Barack Obama’s legacy.

Breaking News

A movement emerges combining college
students, Black Lives Matter activists, former Occupy Wall Street
protesters and anarchists. Trump attempts to impose emergency
restrictions and curfews in major cities.

Breaking News

California emerges as the center of
opposition to Trump, with some branding the movement “Calexit.” The
state defies Trump’s rollback of environmental regulations. Billionaires
Elon Musk and Sheryl Sandberg emerge to lead a progressive alliance
against Trump in 2020.

Politics

All of this causes deep divides in Trump’s
ruling coalition. The GOP splits in Congress and Trump’s team of White
House mavericks are soon at each other’s throats.

Markets

Shares in banks, steel and security firms
surge in the first months of the Trump era. But then the Trump stock
boom fizzles early and Treasuries soar. Shares in Google, Facebook and
Apple take a hit as the faceoff between Trump and Californian
billionaires worsens.

Yalta 2.0

Trump’s isolationism and Vladimir Putin’s
aggression force Germany’s Merkel into a difficult choice: to lead a
military buildup in Europe against Russia. Or heed Trump’s advice and
strike a grand bargain with Putin to agree on spheres of influence in
Eastern Europe.

Breaking News

Putin calls off his hackers and rogue
fighter jets and agrees to stop interfering in the affairs of the U.S.
and the European Union.

Politics

In return, Merkel and Trump recognize
Russia’s sway over Ukraine, Belarus and Syria. For Putin, Russia’s
prestige is finally restored 26 years after the collapse of the Soviet
Union and he starts to talk openly about his retirement after one final
presidential term.

Markets

The ruble rises as Russia comes back into
the global fold. Defense stocks lose some of their luster amid
disappointment that the EU doesn’t arm up.

China and America Go to Economic War

Slamming what he calls #CrookedChina, Trump
tweets at 3:17 a.m. on the morning of his inauguration that he’s
planning to label the country a currency manipulator and slap “huge”
tariffs on incoming imports.

Breaking News

By the time he’s on his way to the Capitol,
China has already started to retaliate by devaluing the yuan, canceling
orders for Boeing jets and blocking iPhone sales.

Breaking News

As the year goes on, Chinese officials,
distracted by political jockeying ahead of November’s reshuffle of the
Communist Party’s Standing Committee, split over how to revive an
already debt-laden economy.

Breaking News

China falls into its deepest recession of the modern era.

Markets

Domestically oriented Russell 2000 equities
soar on anticipation of tariffs. In Asia, a 1997-style currency crisis
and recession ensue.

Kim Trumps Trump

Trump spends his first months in office
calling into question U.S. commitments around the world. First, he
suspends U.S membership in NATO, then in the United Nations. America’s
traditional foes thrive in the vacuum.

Breaking News

Islamic State, exploiting U.S. disengagement
from the world, runs its drug operations out of Afghanistan and
radicalizes Central Asia.

Breaking News

Worried about living outside the American nuclear umbrella, Saudi Arabia and Japan start developing their own capability.

Breaking News

Finally, the world is shocked when North
Korea proves it can fit a miniaturized nuclear device on a missile
capable of hitting the U.S. West Coast.

Politics

Trump’s entire Asian strategy is thrown into
disarray, forcing him to kowtow to China and beg for their help in
reining in their rogue neighbor.

Markets

Shares in defense companies surge and east
Asian stocks plunge amid a broader flight to safer assets such as
Treasury bonds and gold.

Heads Roll in Europe

Legitimized by Trump’s victory, voters
across Europe, starting with the Netherlands, usher in populist leaders
who want to tighten borders, tear up free-trade agreements and even
break away from the euro and the EU itself.

Breaking News

Anti-immigration candidate Marine Le Pen becomes president of France, then holds a referendum on leaving the EU.

Breaking News

In Italy, comedian Beppe Grillo’s Five Star
Movement comes to power in snap elections and immediately calls a
referendum to reinstate the lira.

Breaking News

Germany’s Merkel loses the election. In the U.K., Theresa May is ousted by a hard-liner after Brexit talks go awry.

Breaking News

In Eastern Europe, a newly right-wing Czech
Republic cozies up to Russia and calls a plebiscite on NATO membership.
Under the shadow of Frexit, the passport-free Schengen Area is
dissolved.

Breaking News

Greece blows up again and this time there is no bailout.

Markets

The euro goes into a tailspin as the
political support that saw the currency through the 2009-2012 debt
crisis starts to unravel.

The Internet of (Bad) Things

Amazon, Apple and Google reveal widespread
government wiretaps of the passive listening software on smartphones and
Echo-like connected home devices, while Wikileaks turns on Trump with a
series of embarrassing leaks.

Breaking News

State-sponsored hackers disseminate panic
when they shut down critical infrastructure like power plants or target
Internet-connected medical pumps and self-driving cars.

Breaking News

While no foreign powers will claim
responsibility, evidence points to possible Russian or Chinese
involvement, precipitating open cyber warfare among the superpowers.

Markets
Shares in technology companies take a beating.

Cuba—Back in the U.S.S.R.

Trump backtracks on the Obama-sponsored
rapprochement between Cuba and the U.S., nipping in the bud a chance for
the Socialist island to throw its economy a lifeline.

Breaking News

As money dwindles—at a time when regional
allies Brazil and Venezuela are reducing financial assistance—Cubans
turn their attention to the two other major players still interested in
the region: China and Russia.

Breaking News

Given their historical ties, President Raul Castro lets the Russians reopen an intelligence base in Havana.

Breaking News

A Russian spy agency just 90 miles away from
Miami turns out to be a bit too close even for Trump, straining his
budding relationship with Putin and bringing back memories of the 1962
Cuban Missile Crisis.

Markets

Tourism and shipping, especially cruiseliners, take a hit

Mexico Meltdown

Trump pulls out of NAFTA, boosts tariffs on
Mexican exports and heavily taxes remittances from workers in the U.S.
to pay for the infamous border wall.

Breaking News

Mexico plunges into a deep recession and loses its cherished investment-grade rating.

Politics

Mass deportations from the U.S. force the desperately unemployed arrivals into drug trafficking.

Breaking News

As hostility toward gringos reaches fever
pitch, a populist from the left—Andres Manuel López Obrador—emerges as
front-runner for the presidency in 2018 on a platform that includes the
revision of oil exploration contracts previously awarded to private
companies. Nationalization beckons.

Markets

The peso continues on its downward spiral,
fueling inflation and pushing borrowing costs higher. Led by a plunge in
Pemex paper, Mexican corporate bonds are sold off, bringing back fears
of a wave of debt restructurings.

Saudi Arabia’s Golden Boy is Sidelined

Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s
effort to diversify the world’s largest oil producer away from fossil
fuels goes nowhere in its second year.

Breaking News

As Yemen turns into the kingdom’s own costly
Vietnam, new taxes replace generous subsidies and lead to growing
discontent over declining living standards.

Breaking News

At the same time, the delicate balance of
power in the region tilts toward arch-enemy Iran, as Shiite sympathizers
make gains in Iraq and Syria.

Breaking News

A Saudi palace coup brings to power a new royal family member, who pushes the deputy crown prince aside and shelves reforms.

Politics

With Trump deciding the Middle East is just
not America’s problem anymore, tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran
lead to direct armed confrontation.

Breaking News

Massive disruption hits oil and gas exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

Markets

Oil spikes, investors flee and plans to
privatize national oil company Saudi Aramco are derailed. After burning
through its reserves, Saudi Arabia devalues its currency, forcing the
rest of the region to follow suit.
