“La sabiduría de la vida consiste en la eliminación de lo no esencial. En reducir los problemas de la filosofía a unos pocos solamente: el goce del hogar, de la vida, de la naturaleza, de la cultura”.
Lin Yutang
Cervantes
Hoy es el día más hermoso de nuestra vida, querido Sancho; los obstáculos más grandes, nuestras propias indecisiones; nuestro enemigo más fuerte, el miedo al poderoso y a nosotros mismos; la cosa más fácil, equivocarnos; la más destructiva, la mentira y el egoísmo; la peor derrota, el desaliento; los defectos más peligrosos, la soberbia y el rencor; las sensaciones más gratas, la buena conciencia, el esfuerzo para ser mejores sin ser perfectos, y sobretodo, la disposición para hacer el bien y combatir la injusticia dondequiera que esté.
MIGUEL DE CERVANTES Don Quijote de la Mancha.
La Colmena no se hace responsable ni se solidariza con las opiniones o conceptos emitidos por los autores de los artículos.
3 de enero de 2017
Solar Could Beat Coal to Become the Cheapest Power on Earth
by
Jessica Shankleman
and
Chris Martin
Global average solar cost may fall below coal within 10 years
Countries from Saudi Arabia to Mexico planning auctions
A solar farm in the Atacama desert, northern Chile. Photographer: Vladimir Rodas/AFP via Getty Images
Solar power is now cheaper than coal in some parts of the
world. In less than a decade, it’s likely to be the lowest-cost option
almost everywhere.
In 2016, countries from Chile to the United Arab Emirates
broke records with deals to generate electricity from sunshine for less
than 3 cents a kilowatt-hour, half the average global cost of coal
power. Now, Saudi Arabia,
Jordan and Mexico are planning auctions and tenders for this year,
aiming to drop prices even further. Taking advantage: Companies such as
Italy’s Enel SpA and Dublin’s Mainstream Renewable Power, who gained experienced in Europe and now seek new markets abroad as subsidies dry up at home.
Since
2009, solar prices are down 62 percent, with every part of the supply
chain trimming costs. That’s help cut risk premiums on bank loans, and
pushed manufacturing capacity to record levels. By 2025, solar may be
cheaper than using coal on average globally, according to Bloomberg New
Energy Finance.
“These are game-changing numbers, and it’s becoming normal in
more and more markets," said Adnan Amin, International Renewable Energy
Agency ’s director general, an Abu Dhabi-based intergovernmental group.
"Every time you double capacity, you reduce the price by 20 percent.”
Better
technology has been key in boosting the industry, from the use of
diamond-wire saws that more efficiently cut wafers to better cells that
provide more spark from the same amount of sun. It’s also driven by
economies of scale and manufacturing experience since the solar boom
started more than a decade ago, giving the industry an increasing edge
in the competition with fossil fuels.
The average 1 megawatt-plus
ground mounted solar system will cost 73 cents a watt by 2025 compared
with $1.14 now, a 36 percent drop, said Jenny Chase, head of solar
analysis for New Energy Finance.
That’s in step with other forecasts.
GTM
Research expects some parts of the U.S. Southwest approaching $1 a watt
today, and may drop as low as 75 cents in 2021, according to its
analyst MJ Shiao.
The U.S. Energy Department’s National
Renewable Energy Lab expects costs of about $1.20 a watt now declining
to $1 by 2020. By 2030, current technology will squeeze out most
potential savings, said Donald Chung, a senior project leader.
The International Energy Agency expects utility-scale generation costs to fall by another 25 percent on average in the next five years.
The
International Renewable Energy Agency anticipates a further drop of 43
percent to 65 percent for solar costs by 2025. That would bring to 84
percent the cumulative decline since 2009.
The solar supply
chain is experiencing “a Wal-Mart effect” from higher volumes and lower
margins, according to Sami Khoreibi, founder and chief executive officer
of Enviromena Power Systems, an Abu Dhabi-based developer.
The speed at which the price of solar will drop below coal
varies in each country. Places that import coal or tax polluters with a
carbon price, such as Europe and Brazil, will see a crossover in the
2020s, if not before. Countries with large domestic coal reserves such
as India and China will probably take longer.
Coal’s Rebuttal
Coal
industry officials point out that cost comparisons involving renewables
don’t take into account the need to maintain backup supplies that can
work when the sun doesn’t shine or wind doesn’t blow. When those other
expenses are included, coal looks more economical, even around 2035,
said Benjamin Sporton, chief executive officer of the World Coal
Association.
“All advanced economies demand full-time
electricity,” Sporton said. “Wind and solar can only generate part-time,
intermittent electricity. While some renewable technologies have
achieved significant cost reductions in recent years, it’s important to
look at total system costs.”
Even so, solar’s plunge in price is starting to make the technology a plausible competitor.
In China, the biggest solar market, will see costs
falling below coal by 2030, according to New Energy Finance. The country
has surpassed Germany as the nation with the most installed solar
capacity as the government seeks to increase use to cut carbon emissions
and boost home consumption of clean energy. Yet curtailment remains a
problem, particularly in sunnier parts of the country as congestion on
the grid forces some solar plants to switch off.
Sunbelt
countries are leading the way in cutting costs, though there’s more to
it than just the weather. The use of auctions to award power-purchase
contracts is forcing energy companies to compete with each other to
lower costs.
An August auction in Chile yielded a contract for 2.91 cents a kilowatt-hour. In September, a United Arab Emirates auction grabbed headlines
with a bid of 2.42 cents a kilowatt-hour. Developers have been
emboldened to submit lower bids by expectations that the cost of the
technology will continue to fall.
“We’re seeing a new reality
where solar is the lowest-cost source of energy, and I don’t see an end
in sight in terms of the decline in costs,” said Enviromena’s Khoreibi.