By Masud Wadan
Global Research, December 29, 2017
Url of this article:
https://www.globalresearch.ca/
Iran was not in a state to encroach the Middle East before 2003 when the US incursion into Iraq toppled the regime of Saddam Hussein and
dissolved the erstwhile army. The invasion involuntarily rolled out new
expectations for Iran as Saddam Hussein was a barrier to Iran’s
extension of power into the Middle East. Iran fought an eight-year-long
war with Iraq that cost it more than a million casualties in the 1980s.
The
rise of the ISIS also presented Iran a great deal of opportunities to
stretch its military hand into Iraq and Syria under the anti-ISIS
operations. It delivered Iran strength to reshape its ties with regional
powers such as Turkey and Russia. Moreover, the US’s invasion of
Afghanistan to the east of Iran unlocked another door for Tehran by
overthrowing the five year long rule of the Taliban regime that viewed
Iran as a blood-enemy.
In
September 2012, according to the Washington Post, Iraq refused the
request of Washington to block the Iranian planes from traversing Iraqi
airspace that were providing supplies to the Syrian government in its
battle against Al Qaeda rebel forces.
The
US doesn’t seem panicked regarding Iran’s increased influence in the
region. The countries that need to worry are Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Saudi Arabia might be well-armed to the teeth, but it doesn’t possess
nuclear weapons to threaten Iran. Israel exploits the Saudi-Iran feud
and nudges Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies towards the weakening of
Iran’s position in the region or at least stop it from advancement.
With
Iranian influence extending into Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, and Sana’a,
Iran directly and indirectly influences one-fifth of the Arab world.
However, Iran’s ability to exert its influence in four Arab nations
should be assessed in relation to the relative decline of Arab state
power, not innate Iranian strength.
Iran’s joining of Russia in Syria in operations directed against Al Qaeda affiliated rebels including the ISIS contributed
- first to preventing the West/Israel and Saudi Arabia from taking hold in Syria,
- second, it paved the ground for Iranian forces to stay behind in Iraq and Syria even after Russia declared its troops withdrawal from Syria, and
- thirdly, it enabled Iran to supply arms and resources to Lebanon-based Hezbollah via Syria.
In
Iraq, Tehran’s policies have been largely successful, giving Iran an
unprecedented degree of influence there at the expense of the US and of
Baghdad’s Arab neighbors. A friendly Iraq is not only an important part
of the Iranian-led “axis of resistance” but also serves as an
opportunity for Iran to evade the increasingly harsh international
sanctions regime and to continue financing regional groups.
Iran-supported
Hezbollah was the main motive behind the latest Saudi-Lebanon standoff.
Saudi Arabia in chorus with Israel intended to subvert the rule of
Hezbollah in Lebanon by forcing Prime Minister Hariri into resignation and plunging the country into crisis.
Israel
could be facing its own threat from Iran, and its military is actually
relatively small and isn’t designed for large-scale foreign deployments.
Because of the size of its force, Israel can’t sustain extended,
high-attrition warfare of the sort Iran endured in the 1980s. Iran has
over 534,000 personnel in active service match it with Israel’s power
that is negligible. Yet, Iran’s annual defense spending of $13–15
billion is far less than Israel’s $59 billion, Saudi Arabia’s $90
billion, or the UAE’s $28 billion.
Saudi
Arabia is safeguarded against Iranian assault by virtue of its
domination of oil resources. The US’ huge stake in Saudi Arabia’s oil is
guaranteeing the country’s flow of oil through the Persian Gulf. The
US President Donald Trump has not criticized the tough
and repressive Islamic rules in the Kingdom in the same way it has
linked Iran to terrorism. Also, Saudis have been exempted from Trump’s
travel ban.
It
is not just about the US’ bids for regime change in Iran that
infuriates Iranians, the resentment dates back to 1953 when the CIA
orchestrated the overthrow of Iran’s prime minister Mossadegh in 1953.
(image left, source wikipedia)
The
recent regional developments especially the war on ISIS brought Iran
and Russia further together. Iran positioned its mercenaries in Iraq and
Syria. The Kurdish rebellion, on the other hand, helped in thawing
Iran’s complicated ties with Turkey. Turkey later converted the
trajectory from supporting the ISIS to joining the anti-ISIS bloc led by
Russia and Iran.
Turkey’s downing of Russian fighter jet in Nov. 2015 didn’t injure duo’s relations for more than a year as Russian President Vladimir Putin offered unconditional support to Turkish President Recep T. Erdoğan after
an attempted coup. The assassination of Russian ambassador to Turkey in
2016 in the midst of rapprochement was an attempt to bring the two
neighbors’ relations back to an earlier worst state, but it failed.
A
country’s behavior always changes based on its own strategic interests
which is the same for Russia, Turkey and Iran. During the Cold War,
Turkey was a key NATO ally against the Soviet Union. Iran supported the
Afghan rebels against the USSR, while the USSR supported Iraq against
Iran.
Iran
is in quest of extending its Shiite doctrine into other regions that
predates the founding of the Islamic Republic. Russia earlier criticized
of Turkey’s “neo-Ottomanism” and the West is concerned over Russia’s “Eurasianism”,
while Russia, China and Iran, in turn, are cautioning and anticipating
for the US’s grand offensive plans originating in Afghanistan. Now the
fear is of a resurgence of an imperial project.
Russia
is taking a neutral side when it comes to Iran-Saudi Arabia standoff as
it has close economic ties with each. It has sold advanced weaponry to
both countries and only willing to act as a mediator. This is while
Turkey as a Sunni power is proximate to Saudi Arabia than Iran. Turkey
had banded together with Saudi Arabia in alliance with other regional
powers against Syrian Government that is favored by Iran.
Saudi
Arabia-Qatar’s cul-de-sac disclosed the previously unknown degree of
Iran and Qatar’s close relations. This intimacy was so much that forced
Saudi Arabia to go tough on Qatar and introduce a myriad of bans which
Iran struggled to offset to some extent.
Egypt
as a close ally of Israel and the US has not been warm to Iran in
relation to Saudi Arabia. Following Saudi Arabia’s declaration of
sanctions on Qatar, Egypt, the UAE and Bahrain imposed a blockade in
July.
As
a fresh opposition to Iran’s footing in Syria, France’s foreign
minister has accused Iran of trying to create an “axis” of military and
political influence stretching from Tehran through Iraq, Syria, and
Lebanon to the Mediterranean Sea.
Speaking in an interview with France 2 television broadcast on December 12, Jean-Yves Le Drian said
that rather than pursue ambitions to expand its military presence in
the region, Iran as well as Russia should work with the United Nations
to try to establish peace in war-torn Syria. He said:
“There is a Syria that needs to exist free from foreign powers and influence”
Keep in mind that he would not have said so if the ISIS won the war and the West settled there.
Disclaimer: The contents
of this article are of sole responsibility of the author(s). The Centre
for Research on Globalization will not be responsible for any inaccurate
or incorrect statement in this article.Copyright © Masud Wadan, Global Research, 2017
