Calling up the reserves isn't indicative of a coming all out war, but something else entirely.
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America’s proxy war with Russia over Ukraine is becoming increasingly unpopular on the home front, and more and more damaging to reputation of the D.C. Uniparty, and now it appears that the Biden Administration is seeking an exit from the conflict in the coming months ahead.
The talking points have seemingly gone out to the president to advance the idea that Moscow has already lost, to lay the groundwork that America has achieved its objectives (whatever they are) in Ukraine.
Earlier this month, the cognitively challenged American president declared that Putin “is clearly losing the war in Iraq,” meaning to say Ukraine. He then followed up Thursday by asserting that Putin “has already lost the war.”
This isn’t the infamous “Mission Accomplished” rhetoric we saw from Bush 43 at the beginning of the Iraq war, but it has the same political driver behind it.
President Bush had the country propagandized firmly in support of the war effort, and did not need to worry about waning commitment from Congress and the like. Nonetheless, he still wanted to maintain the appearance that all was going just swimmingly in Iraq.
The Biden Administration does not have the long leash to continue the war in perpetuity, but still needs to present the facade of a “mission accomplished” moment, in order to secure a political victory, or at least mitigate the damage done by the continuing Slava Slush Fund boondoggle.
The Biden Administration faces several challenges that hamper its ability to prosecute this proxy war to the extent that the Uniparty sees fit.
- the Pentagon is witnessing an unprecedented recruiting crisis (the worst since the end of the draft era), forcing the Biden Administration to call up thousands of reserve and inactive soldiers to support logistics for the proxy war in Europe.
- The ammunition problem. Ukraine is firing around 7,000 rounds of 155mm artillery shells each day, and the use rate is far beyond the capacity of U.S. production. Ukrainian forces are burning about a month’s worth of production generated by the entire pro-Ukraine alliance in about three or four days time. There is simply no way to close this gap in short order. America can’t just flip a switch and turn on its industrial base. We’ve discussed this issue further here.
- Ukraine’s much hyped counteroffensive has become a complete failure, and is raising alarm bells with NATO countries, which won’t commit to sending any troops of their own into the proxy war. They know that Russian forces can push the Ukrainian lines even further back, while Ukraine’s forces are not capable of achieving any semblance of territorial reclaim on their own. And the NATO summit this week showed that allied nations have ZERO interest in having troops on the ground in Ukraine.
- The political capital problem. As mentioned above, the Biden Administration does not have a long leash with Congress. As much as the defense industry wants this war to continue forever, pushing the envelope will become increasingly risky from a political perspective.
There are already reports indicating that secret negotiations have begun between the D.C. and Moscow. Don’t be surprised to see this war end sooner than we may all project.
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