Early exit polls following Israel’s parliamentary elections Tuesday show a tight race between Netanyahu’s Likud party and the left-leaning Zionist Union led by Isaac Herzog, Netanyahu’s most serious rival for the premiership.
Alternatively, Rivlin could push for a national unity government under terms negotiated between the parties.
Exit polls from Israel’s Channel 2, reported by CNN, show Likud winning 28 seats and the Zionist Union with 27 seats. Other exit polls from Israel’s Channel 10 and Channel 1 show each earning 27 seats.
The joint Arab Union, formed by multiple smaller parties who draw their base from Israel’s Arab citizens, have, according to various exit polls, earned somewhere around 13 seats.
Though the Arab parties are unlikely to join a coalition with Jewish parties, Brookings Institution analyst Natan Sachs believes they might well recommend that Herzog be given the chance to form a coalition and could potentially offer his government outside support.
Earlier this week, Herzog said he would welcome an Arab minister in his cabinet, but thought it unlikely that the Arab List would be willing to join his coalition. On Tuesday, Ayman Odeh, the head of the Arab List, indicated he would be willing to join a Herzog government — but it’s not clear whether the leaders of the various Arab parties that make up the list would go along.
Reports this morning of a high Arab turnout — fueled by anonymous text messages and even a Facebook post from Netanyahu himself — seem to have galvanized Israel’s right wing to get out and vote later in the day.
Exit polls also show the centrist Kulanu and Yesh Atid parties earning double-digit seat counts.
Naftali Bennett’s right-wing Jewish Home party, according to the exit surveys, has earned around eight or nine seats, suggesting that the Likud had siphoned off some of Bennett’s supporters.
Over the coming weeks, Israeli politicians will be wheeling and dealing in attempts to form a government. Many Israeli analysts expect Moshe Kahlon, the head of Kulanu and a former Likud member, to emerge as a kingmaker.
Netanyahu “did significantly better than people expected,” said Sachs, as his party seemed to be falling in the polls in recent weeks. Still, that is no guarantee that he will be able to cobble together a coalition, Sachs said.
Despite the uncertainty, Netanyahu declared victory in a tweet late Tuesday:
Against all odds: a great victory for the Likud. A major victory for the people of Israel!
— ?????? ?????? (@netanyahu) March 17, 2015
