Is the brutal cold winter driving the economic data lower?
The U.S. economy keeps disappointing.
Last week, we reported
on how the U.S. economy was the most disappointing major economy in the
world based on the Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index, which measures
incoming economic data against economist expectations.
These measures tend to move in cycles, as they reflect both the absolute economic data as well as the optimism or pessimism of the forecasters, which is in itself cyclical.
For the U.S. we keep driving lower, hitting depths not seen since the
economic crisis. Again, this doesn't mean that the economy is anywhere
near as bad as it was then. But whether it's a slowdown caused by the
harsh winter or something else, relative to where economists thought we
would be, the U.S. is missing by a large margin.
For a deeper dive into the measure, and how the U.S. stands against other countries, read here.
These measures tend to move in cycles, as they reflect both the absolute economic data as well as the optimism or pessimism of the forecasters, which is in itself cyclical.
For a deeper dive into the measure, and how the U.S. stands against other countries, read here.