“La sabiduría de la vida consiste en la eliminación de lo no esencial. En reducir los problemas de la filosofía a unos pocos solamente: el goce del hogar, de la vida, de la naturaleza, de la cultura”.
Lin Yutang
Cervantes
Hoy es el día más hermoso de nuestra vida, querido Sancho; los obstáculos más grandes, nuestras propias indecisiones; nuestro enemigo más fuerte, el miedo al poderoso y a nosotros mismos; la cosa más fácil, equivocarnos; la más destructiva, la mentira y el egoísmo; la peor derrota, el desaliento; los defectos más peligrosos, la soberbia y el rencor; las sensaciones más gratas, la buena conciencia, el esfuerzo para ser mejores sin ser perfectos, y sobretodo, la disposición para hacer el bien y combatir la injusticia dondequiera que esté.
MIGUEL DE CERVANTES Don Quijote de la Mancha.
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10 de junio de 2015
S&P 500 at Smallest Price Range in 20 Years
A deer in headlights is stuck in place and too overwhelmed to act. So
too are stock investors as they await action from the Federal Reserve.
The attached chart shows that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index
this year is trading in the smallest range since at least 1995, with the
2015 low only 6.5 percent below its year-to-date high. The same is true
for individual companies in the benchmark gauge. Stocks in the S&P
500 have moved in an average range of 18 percent from highs to lows,
also the narrowest in two decades.
The
S&P 500 has climbed just 1.8 percent in 2015 after double-digit
surges in each of the last three years, as investors try to interpret
signs of economic growth. To some money managers, improving data will
translate to more earnings growth, while others see it catalyzing a
series of Fed rate hikes that may lessen the appeal of stocks.
“It signifies the uncertainty that’s still out there,” Bill Schultz,
who oversees $1.2 billion as chief investment officer at McQueen, Ball
& Associates Inc. in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, said by phone. “You
have a lot of contrasting things going on that have led you to a
lackadaisical market that lacks direction and is stuck in a range.”
The S&P 500 rose 0.7 percent to 2,094.44 at 9:50 a.m. in New
York, about 1.7 percent from a record reached May 21. The index hasn’t
had a 10 percent decline since October 2011, the longest stretch without
a drop of that magnitude since a 55-month period ending in October
2007.
Tight Trading
While the market has remained resilient, it has
also stayed in a narrow track. The benchmark index is just 5 points
below its average price for the past 100 days. The S&P 500 ended
last week down 0.7 percent, marking its sixth straight week with a move of less than 1 percent, the longest stretch of calm since May 1994.
Investors have paused after sorting through data that keeps them
guessing about the economy. While gross domestic product in the U.S.
shrank at a 0.7 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, jobs data
for May showed the strongest hiring in five months and the biggest wage
gains in two years.
The Fed and stock investors alike may get further clarity on the
state of the U.S. economy this week, with consumer sentiment and retail
sales data due for release.
Investor sentiment has also been dictated by corporate earnings and
global headlines, according to JC O’Hara of FBN Securities Inc. Seventy
percent of S&P 500 companies beat profit expectations for the first
quarter, while 47 percent exceeded sales estimates, Bloomberg data show.
Greece, Oil
Money managers are awaiting progress in Greece’s
debt talks with just three weeks to go before the country’s financial
safety net expires. At the same time, investors have had to contend with
a bond selloff and the dollar’s strongest level since 2002 versus the
yen.
“Earnings have done just enough to keep the bulls interested, but
global macro events have provided enough ammo to keep the bears
prevalent,” O’Hara, the New York-based chief market technician at FBN
Securities, wrote in a client note Tuesday. Stocks are in a range that’s
“extremely narrow,” he said.