https://www.axios.com/2024/11/13/carbon-emissions-fossil-fuels-record-high
The intrigue: Much attention has focused this year on whether China's emissions are peaking. It's the world's largest current emitter of greenhouse gases.
- The new report finds China's emissions grew by a small amount this year, on the order of 0.2%.
- While China saw record growth in renewable power this year, coal power also expanded in order to keep pace with electricity demand.
- On the relatively flat overall emissions trajectory in China this year, Peters said it may or may not be a sign of peak emissions there.
- "Whether that is just a one-off or a sign of a trend, we'll have to wait and see," he told Axios. "We need a few more years of data."
Peters said China has likely reached peak oil use, given the growth of electric vehicle use there.
Between the lines: The report reveals fault lines in emissions between developed and developing nations, with emissions declining in some countries, only to be outweighed by increases elsewhere.
- In India, for example, fossil-related CO2 emissions are projected to rise by 4.6% this year as the economy continues to grow.
- Most of the new electricity demand is being met with existing coal-fired power plants, with a smaller share by new renewables, study coauthor Robbie Andrew, who is also a senior researcher at CICERO, said in a statement.
- By contrast, fossil-tied CO2 emissions in the EU are projected to decline by 3.8% this year, and U.S. fossil-related CO2 emissions are projected to decline by 0.6%.
- In the U.S., the report finds that natural gas and renewables continue to best coal in the power sector.
Zoom out: Overall, the report shows a significant gap between the country level and the world at large, with the global community not yet making the emissions cuts that would be required to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature targets, at least not yet.
- There are, however, clear signs of reducing emissions in some countries. A total of 22 countries saw CO2 emissions tied to burning fossil fuels come down while they grew their economies.
- Nations are also adding record amounts of solar, wind, EVs and other technologies to bend the emissions curve downward.
- These developments come amid escalating climate impacts in the form of extreme weather events, sea level rise and other trends.
The bottom line: "Things are happening," Peters said, "but not enough to get emissions to turn around yet."
